OUT-OF-SAMPLE BACKTEST · NOT TRAINING FIT
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Out-of-sample accuracy called on 2026 group-stage games — predicted by a model frozen before kickoff.
QUANT FORECAST MODEL
Probabilities & scorelines for every World Cup match.
A time-weighted Dixon-Coles bivariate-Poisson model fit on 49,453 international results from 1872 to 2026 — win/draw/loss odds, exact-score distributions and expected goals for any fixture. The model runs entirely in your browser.